Crystal Ball Training

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Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil and Gas

(*Prices are listed in Australian dollars, GST inclusive.)


On-site Price
(per day)
Onsite training for up to 6 people (per day) AUD$4000
Additional person for an on-site course (per day) AUD$650
Travel and accommodation for trainer outside of Melbourne AUD$750 - $1500
On-site training outside of Australia Get a Quote!
Contact us to organise on-site training. Please ensure bookings are made at least 1 month in advance.

With so many risks and uncertainties associated with production forecasts, drilling costs, reservoir properties, operating expenses, and oil / gas prices, it is extraordinarily difficult to forecast earnings and cash flow for even the simplest prospects.

This two-day course will teach you how to model uncertainty and risk, identify key drivers and then refine them using an advanced suite of professional modelling tools. The course shows how to evaluate individual prospects and then how to combine them into a working portfolio optimised on your key business indicators.

This course is intended for Oil & Gas professionals involved in evaluating the economic potential of oil and gas wells, prospects, and portfolios. This audience includes asset team engineers and geoscientists charged with providing inputs and running corporate economic evaluations, as well as supervisors to mid-level management who want a hands-on understanding of modelling uncertainty associated with exploration and production operations.

Attendees should have a good working knowledge of Excel, however, experience with Crystal Ball is not a prerequisite, as beginning concepts and techniques are covered (or reviewed depending on the student's experience) in the first 1/2 day of the course.

By the end of this two-day course, you will have learned:

  • The Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation using Crystal Ball
  • Tornado Charting and Analysis for Discounted Cash Flow Analysis of a Drillable Prospect
  • Conversion of Point Estimate Prospect Model to Stochastic Simulation Model Accounting for Uncertainties Including Dry Hole Risk, Production Uncertainties, Expense Risks, and Price Forecasting Uncertainties
  • Incorporating Historical Drilling and Completion Costs and other Historical Data Into Simulation
  • Correlated / Dependent Assumptions and their Importance to Simulation
  • Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Results, including the Use Of Sensitivity analysis as a Project Management Tool
  • Time Series Forecasting
  • Portfolio Optimisation using Multiple Business Requirements and Constraints Including Markowitz Efficient Frontier and Sharpe's Ratio

Agenda

Software used in this course: Crystal Ball version 11.1.1 and Crystal Ball Decision Optimizer version 11.1.1

Time: 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Actual start times vary by location. Please check your confirmation letter for actual start time)

Day 1

  1. Point Estimate Model & Drivers Using Tornado Chart
  2. Integrating Historical Data into Model Assumptions
  3. Correlating Model Assumptions
  4. Simulation of Reserves for Multiple Zones

Day 2

  1. Refining Model Drivers Using Time Series Analysis
  2. Portfolio Optimisation Strategies
  3. Bayes Theorem and the Value of Imperfect Information
  4. Field Development Program Simulation


 

Terms and Conditions

Registration closes 5 days prior to the start of the course. The number of participants is limited.

If a cancellation occurs within less than 10 working days of the course date, the full value of the course fee will be charged. If cancelled prior to 10 working days of the course date, no cancellation fee will be charged. Cancellation fees apply to all training attendees. Hearne Scientific Software reserves the right to reschedule any course. In the event that Hearne Scientific Software cancels a course, full refunds will be issued to all paid parties.

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